Oil Bulls in the China Shop: Will China Push Oil Prices Higher?: "
Will China come to the rescue of floundering oil prices, one way or the other?
Chinese demand for oil seems to be recovering rapidly. Bloomberg
reports that Chinese crude imports surged 28% in November. For the year, oil imports are up 11% compared with last year—already a high-water mark for China’s oil appetite.
Resurgent demand in China—on the back of a strong manufacturing rebound–is the main reason the International Energy Agency is revising upward its forecast for 2010 global oil demand. The IEA increased its global demand forecasts by 130,000 barrels a day—with almost 100,000 barrels coming just from China, the WSJ
reports.
For now, that isn’t giving much support to crude futures, which are slipping back down toward $70 a barrel in early Friday trading.
But the
return of Chinese demand, such a big part of the price spikes in 2007 and 2008, is the main argument oil bulls have, given flat or declining demand for crude oil in rich, industrialized countries.
The bigger question is whether that will last. There are plenty of things that could push up Chinese demand, now and for the near future: Economic growth and surging auto sales, for starters.
But Beijing is also talking about making permanent the country’s recent efforts to clean up the economy by boosting energy-efficiency goals. Those plans—to sharply reduce the “carbon intensity” of the Chinese economy over the next decade—could
take a bite out of the country’s future demand for oil, many analysts say. Even big oil producers
are worried that Chinese green dreams, coupled with global efforts to tackle climate change, could seriously crimp demand for oil in the future.
There’s another possibility worth keeping in mind: Chinese demand could indeed trail off in the future and oil prices could still go up.
That’s if China returns to its manufacturing-heavy, export-driven model of economic growth—with the U.S. as consumer of last resort. A widening U.S. trade deficit, coupled with the budget deficit, could keep pressure on the dollar. And a weaker dollar—even with less oil demand growth than experts now expect—would likely push crude prices higher."